The Monte Carlo Fallacy
- Gary Higby
- Nov 5, 2023
- 1 min read
Often in a casino when there has been a run of one colour (black or red) on the roulette table many gamblers will start to play heavier on the other colour. It is based on the false belief that after say 10 black numbers the chance of a red number coming up is increased.
Sadly this is not the case as each spin is independent of the previous one and the probability remains 18 in 37 or 1 in2.06 (having the zero reduces it from 50/50.
It is called the Monte Carlo Fallacy as a famous example happened there in 1913 when black numbers came up 26 times in a row and many gamblers lost heavily- although the highest recorded run so far was in America in 1943 red came up 32 times